Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

EUR/USD reaching 1.0745 led to a sell signal in the market, however, having the MACD line far away from zero limited the downside potential of the pair. Its second test was more successful as a buy signal, coinciding with the MACD line in the oversld area, prompted a more than 35-pip increase in the pair. It hit 1.0775, where another buy signal was formed, but the further upside potential was limited. No other signal appeared for the rest of the day.

The import price index and volume of retail trade in Germany were ignored by the market, then, in the afternoon, volatility dropped because markets closed amid the holiday in the US.

Today, a bunch of reports about the European economy will be released, and they may startle the markets. France will publish data on GDP and consumer prices, which are unlikely to go beyond expectations. It will be followed by the unemployment report in Germany, which, if showed a decrease, will prompt a rise in EUR/USD. A spike in the EU's consumer prices will also lead to a price increase as strong data will force the European Central Bank to raise rates at a more aggressive pace. In the afternoon, there is nothing that could help the US dollar, but given that today is the end of the month, there may be a slight strengthening. Chicago PMI and consumer confidence data will be the most important as their growth will lead to a brief rise in USD.

For long positions:

Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.0759 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0795 (thicker green line on the chart). There is a chance for a rally today, but it will not be very strong. Only good data on the eurozone will prompt that. Nevertheless, make sure that when buying, the MACD line is above zero or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.0735, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0759 and 1.0795.

For short positions:

Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.0735 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0694. Pressure will return if statistics in the EU come out weaker than expected. However, note that when selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 1.0759, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0735 and 1.0694.

What's on the chart:

The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.

The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.

MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.