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16.03.2021 02:09 PM
GBP/USD: plan for the US session on March 16 (analysis of morning trades)

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need to:

Sellers of the pound behaved quite predictably during the European session, which led to the formation of a good entry point into short positions. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze the trades: in the first half of the day, I advised selling the pound after breaking through and consolidating below the level of 1.3844, which happened. It is visible how after the breakout of the support of 1.3844, its reverse test occurs from the bottom up, which forms an excellent entry point into short positions. At the time of writing the forecast, the downward movement was more than 35 points. The main target remains the support of 1.3783.

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The task of buyers in the second half of the day is to return the GBP/USD to the level of 1.3844. Only its test on the reverse side will form a new entry point into long positions, which will lead to an increase in the pound to the resistance area of 1.3903, where I recommend taking the profits. The next major resistance is seen around 1.3951. If there is no activity on the part of buyers at this level, it is best not to rush to open long positions. The optimal solution is to wait for the pound to decline to the support area of 1.3783, from where you can buy the pair immediately for a rebound in the expectation of an upward correction of 30-35 points within the day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need to:

The bears have already completed their initial task and gained control of the level of 1.3844. As long as the trade is conducted below this range, we can expect the pound to continue to decline to the low of 1.3783, where I recommend taking the profits. The next major support is seen in the area of 1.3732. In the case of a return of GBP/USD in the second half of the day to the resistance area of 1.3844, only the formation of a false breakdown there will act as another signal to open short positions in the continuation of the bear market. In the absence of bear activity in the resistance area of 1.3844, it is best not to rush to sell: you can open short positions immediately on a rebound only from the maximum of 1.3903, based on a downward correction of 30-35 points within the day. The next major resistance area is seen around 1.3951.

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Let me remind you that the COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for March 9 recorded a reduction in both short and long commercial positions. This time, the closing of long positions was quite strong, which led to a reduction in the positive delta. The main problem for risky assets, which include the British pound, remains the growth of US bond yields, which provides serious support to the US dollar. However, in the medium term, buyers of the pound will certainly take advantage of this moment to enter the market at more attractive prices. The start of the curtailment of quarantine measures in March this year will continue to provide the main support to the pound, as will new measures to help the UK population in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic. Long non-profit positions declined from 65,138 to 61,271. At the same time, short non-profit positions declined from 29,056 to 27,360, which indicates a possible further decline in the pair. As a result, the non-profit net position fell to 33,911 from 36,082 a week earlier. The weekly closing price fell to 1.3821 against 1.3928. The observed downward correction in the pound will attract new buyers.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is just below 30 and 50 daily averages, indicating that the bears are trying to regain control of the market.

Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

In the case of a rise in the pound, the average border of the indicator in the area of 1.3965 will act as a resistance.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
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