EUR/USD – 1H.
The EUR/USD pair during Friday, June 11, quite unexpectedly performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and a strong fall below the level of 1.2117. There was no important news either in the European Union or in the United States. Unlike on Thursday, when the ECB meeting was summed up in the EU and a press conference with Christine Lagarde, and an important inflation report was released in the United States. But on Thursday, the pair was trading in a 50-point range, and on Friday, it fell by 100 points. Thus, traders continue to react to economic data in a very peculiar way. However, the fall in the pair's quotes on Friday does not affect the overall picture of things too much. On the hourly chart, there is a feeling that the movements are quite strong and relatively even trending. However, the real picture is on the 4-hour chart, where it is visible that the quotes are in a very narrow, almost sideways corridor.
Thus, even the growth of the US dollar on Friday does not guarantee its further strengthening. This week, the information background will be quite interesting. The most attention will be paid to the Fed meeting. The European Central Bank did not impress traders with its decisions last week (or rather, the lack of them), and I believe that the Fed is unlikely to make any important decisions. Recently, the issue of curtailing the asset purchase program has been increasingly discussed in the trading community, especially in the context of the Fed, because the US economy is recovering rapidly, and inflation has already accelerated to 5%. Thus, the Fed has reason to at least calm the markets a little on this issue. But in my opinion, it is too early to talk about a real tightening of monetary policy. The Fed will also not make any important decisions and hint at the end of the stimulus program by 2021 or even in 2022.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes have resumed the process of falling, but at the same time, they are inside the trend descending corridor, so the potential for falling is minimal. At this time, the quotes have reached the lower limit of the corridor, and a bullish divergence is brewing for the MACD indicator. Accordingly, the probability of a reversal in favor of the European currency and some growth in the direction of the upper limit of the corridor is high.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair closed above the level of 161.8% (1.2027). But at the moment, all the charts signal different movements and directions. There is no unity in the graphic picture.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle," which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On June 11, the calendars of economic events in America and the European Union were empty. There was no information background on this day.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
EU - change in industrial production (09:00 UTC).
On June 14, the calendars of economic events in the United States and the European Union are almost empty. Just one report for the day, and not the most significant one. The information background will be practically absent today.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
Last Friday, another COT report was released, which showed a weakening of the "bullish" mood among speculators. During the week, the "Non-commercial" category of traders closed 5,525 long contracts and a total of 401 short contracts. Thus, the systematic disposal of long contracts began. But their total number in the hands of speculators remains almost twice as large as the number of short contracts. And in general, the changes are not so significant now that we can talk about a complete shift in mood from "bullish" to "bearish." I believe that speculators are still focused on buying the European currency.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
I recommend selling the pair in the case of a rebound of quotes from the upper limit of the corridor on the 4-hour chart with a target of 1.2117. I recommend buying the pair if the quotes close above the corridor on the 4-hour chart with targets of 1.2275 and 1.2353.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
