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16.08.2022 11:45 PM
How to trade EUR/USD on August 17? Simple tips for beginners.

Analysis of Tuesday's deals:

30M chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward movement for half a day on Tuesday without any stops or delays. There was a sharp upward reversal and a noticeable growth of the pair by 70 points only in the second half of the day. Interestingly, this growth was not preceded by either macroeconomics, or the foundation, nothing. That is, at that time there were simply no important news or events that could provoke a sharp change in market sentiment. Thus, we conclude that the sharp rise in the euro was purely technical. Over the past three days, traders have shown that they are not ready to buy the euro, but they are very ready to sell it. We continue to support the continuation of the global downward trend and the renewal of the pair's 20-year lows. There is still no trend line or channel now, as the whole trend only takes a few days. However, something may be formed in the near future.

5M chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The movement on the 5-minute timeframe was not the best. The pair had a tendency to fall in the first half of the day, but did it in an uncertain manner. The growth was not bad in the second half of the day. Let's get down to the analysis of trading signals. Three of them formed at once at the beginning of the European trading session. First, the pair bounced off the level of 1.0156 and novice traders could open long positions. However, this signal turned out to be false, and after consolidating below the level of 1.0156, they should have been closed. And open short positions on a signal to sell. This signal was stronger, as was the next one, which duplicated it. The price dropped to the level of 1.0123, from which it rebounded ideally in terms of accuracy. Therefore, shorts should have been closed at this moment and new longs should have been opened. The signal to buy from the level of 1.0123 turned out to be the strongest, as the price went up more than 60 points after its formation. The deal had to be closed manually, because at the time of the evening the price failed to work out the target level of 1.0221. But even in this case, the profit on it was about 45 points, and on all previous transactions there was a loss of 5 points. In total, the day ended in profit.

How to trade on Wednesday:

The euro continues to fall on the 30-minute timeframe, even despite the pair's growth in the afternoon. In the near future, we believe that the downward trend will continue, or the pair will resume flat, which it has been in for three of the last four weeks. I would very much like to avoid this, but the diligent shorts on the euro in the last three days speak of a bearish mood in the market. On the 5-minute TF on Wednesday, it is recommended to trade at the levels of 1.0072, 1.0123, 1.0156, 1.0221, 1.0269-1.0277, 1.0354. When passing 15 points in the right direction, you should set Stop Loss to breakeven. America will publish a report on retail sales, and in the European Union - GDP for the second quarter. Unfortunately, this will be the second GDP estimate for the second quarter, so we do not expect a serious market reaction. It is also unlikely that traders will react violently to the report on retail sales in the US.

Basic rules of the trading system:

1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.

2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.

3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.

4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the US one, when all deals must be closed manually.

5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.

6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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